Back to Contents of Issue: November 2001
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by J. Mark Lytle |
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![]() Media interest in Aibo -- Sony's quadrupedal, anthropomorphic robopooch -- was little short of hysterical after the product hit the streets in a blaze of publicity and light-speed sales in June 1999. The statistics of the initial limited offering are already the stuff of legend -- 2,000 shiny $2,500 Aibos sold in the US in the first four days, while the domestic novelty seekers snapped up the initial run of 3,000 in less than 20 minutes. Since those early days, Sony has spun off its robot division into an autonomous entity -- the Entertainment Robot Company -- under the stewardship of Satoshi Amagai, and it's established Aibo as a permanent fixture in its product line. Indeed, Amagai has been widely quoted as saying that he hopes to see Aibo become one of the main pillars of Sony's business. As of April 2001, more than 95,000 Aibos have found new homes around the planet. While undeniably a success story, Aibo is not without its critics. Noted robotics scientist Takeo Kanade, the director of Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute, offered his view. "Aibo's 'cuteness' comes from its inability to do certain things, rather than its ability," he says. "The machine is not complex enough yet to show that [kind of] complexity in the pattern of failures, let alone to do the right things." Nonetheless, Kanade sees no shortage of economic potential: "I think this entertainment robot market will be real, in the sense that they're dealing with 'nobody-knows-the-right-answer' or 'nobody-cares-about-the-right-answer' problems." That's an academic's viewpoint, but what of the man driving Sony's new business division? Amagai has something of a track record at Sony, and is often cited as the driving force behind the success of the original Walkman -- something he was at pains to clarify for us. His background in AI at the Tokyo Institute of Technology led him into the TV and video group of Sony Corporation and from there to defining audiences and forecasting demand for Walkman and new media teletext services, respectively. Various spells in the US saw Amagai create Sony's four-zone (Japan, Asia, US, Europe) business system and apply it to the global television market, as well as establish a manufacturing infrastructure in San Diego. Most recently, he has been GM of the Home Network Company, charged with integrating Sony's diverse business strategies. Amagai met with journalist J. Mark Lytle at the year-old Entertainment Robot Company's Tokyo headquarters to share his understanding of the current market for consumer and entertainment robots -- and his vision for the road ahead.
When you were a student at Tokyo Institute of Technology, did you ever imagine you would be masterminding an army of electronic animals?
You were in large part responsible for the success of the original Walkman. How do you compare that challenge to the task of making Sony's robots as successful?
My challenge now, when compared with the Walkman, is very different. Even though Walkman represented a new category, it still was an extension of existing products. In other words, it was still for listening to music. Aibo had no benchmark and involved creating a new market from scratch -- that's the difference: expanding an existing market, or creating one from zero. It's my greatest challenge.
Of all the products you have been directly involved with at Sony, which has been the most interesting? Which has been the greatest challenge and which the most satisfying?
What are the economics of Aibo?
Are sales disappointing?
What are the predictions for future growth?
Aibo was launched using an interesting business model -- the limited
edition. What bearing has this approach had on the success of the
product line?
What are your plans for Aibo's evolution?
Color is also an option -- currently in Japan, the gold Aibo sells best, but in Europe it's silver. Even in color, each region has its own preferences, but we can also introduce different software or accessories. If the market grows, regional models are a possibility -- perhaps an American version or something like that. Also, a "connected" or networked Aibo (a wireless LAN connection is already possible) that can be synchronized remotely with a software Aibo will allow more opportunities for entertainment -- Dokodemo Aibo (Aibo anywhere), perhaps. Inside Aibo is a PC, so we have to find the most suitable applications for it. Some procedures are better done by PC; Aibo isn't going to be a word processor, but it may read your mail for you, perhaps even with a local accent.
As far as price goes, one alternative is to keep the price as it is and insert higher features and technology. The other is to keep the same features and lower the price. That's something of a choice between zero and one, but I think we can find a compromise. I can't say right now which direction we will take, but we are discussing our options at the moment.
How about third-party products for Aibo?
Almost every day we get inquiries from outside developers, but we have to consider the business potential. So far almost 100,000 Aibos have been sold -- some people say this is a large figure, but, to compare it with the established base of, say, game consoles, it's still a small number. Unless you hit 1 million, outside parties don't get serious.
Apart from Aibo, what are the most interesting products in this sector?
Did cheaper competitors dilute the brand value of Walkman?
Does the same thing apply to Aibo?
The Walkman people may object to this comment, but compared to that, the hurdles to entering this market are higher. As I said, to make an attractive robot, three factors are necessary: very competitive mechatronics, AI, and entertainment sense. Maybe some competitors have one or two of those elements, but not all three, so it may require a joint venture or international consortium to enter the field.
What kind of robots are we likely to see in homes in the future? As of now, Sony has no intention of going into the second two categories -- we know we're good at entertainment, but we don't know if we're good at nursing or domestic chores. Also, I see more intelligent robots -- the current Aibo uses voice recognition, but maybe the next challenge is not voice, but speech recognition or perhaps even a full dialogue. I don't know if it's attainable in the next 10 or 20 years, but emotion is one of the goals. At this moment I've no idea, but for me personally, I don't believe in the phenomenon of the character David in (Steven Spielberg's movie) A.I., where a robot wanted to become a real human.
Are there any potential dangers in marketing intelligent or emotional toys?
On a lighter note, can a lump of plastic and silicon ever replace the beloved family dog?
In a nutshell, what's Sony's outlook for entertainment robots? |
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