In 1989, analyst Francis Fukuyama published a paper (later expanded into a book) entitled The End of History? The intriguing premise of his essay was that the collapse of communism represented not merely the closure of a historical era, but the end point of an ideological evolution: the universalization of Western-style democracy as the "final" form of human government.

Some recent observers are suggesting that yet another end is at hand - one they portray as "the end of geography." The trigger of this profound evolutionary climax, however, is not a terminus but a nascence: the global dissemination and acceptance of the Internet.

Proclaiming the "end of geography" may sound like the next level of Internet hype, but let's not be too hasty to dismiss the underlying concept. When we can send e-mail to a person on the other side of the globe just as easily and as quickly as we do to a colleague at the other end of the office, spatial dimension takes on new and novel forms. And when electronic commerce becomes a viable purchasing option - which, with the advent of smart cards and electronic wallets, may be sooner than we think - geographic proximity and physical presence will no longer be a necessity.

If the closest branch of my bank, or my favorite bookstore, is no further than my computer, what does this imply for market penetration and competition (both intra- and inter-company)? Does Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank need to maintain hundreds of physical branches scattered throughout Tokyo and across Japan if it has millions of virtual branches - potentially, one on each PC connected to the Internet? Can neighborhood bookstores survive if we can order our books from an Internet-based megabookstore for next-day delivery by takkyubin?>

Looking at the broad picture poses some intriguing questions: Will Internet-based virtual "stores" have the same effect on shopping malls that shopping malls had on downtown America in the '60s? Will we see boarded-up storefronts on Tokyo streets as consumers turn to computer- or Web TV-based home shopping?

OK, that may be a far-fetched scenario, but trends only look inevitable in hindsight. Ninety years ago, buggy makers probably gave little thought to the threat of the "horseless carriage," and railroad tycoons would have ridiculed any suggestion that passengers might one day forsake trains and cross the continent by "aeroplane." Electronic commerce may not mean the "end of geography," but it will affect our purchasing habits and drastically alter the banking and retail sales markets in the decade to come.

By 2010, the ATM (automated teller machine) may be as rare as an actual human bank teller is today. And Japanese teens may have to find a way to do tachiyomi (literally, standing-reading) of the newest manga online.

WM. Auckerman