The Times, They Are A-Changin'
by John Boyd
Is it a bizarre IT world we're living in right now, or what? "Sleeping
with the enemy" doesn't half-describe what's going on these days between
one-time bitter industry rivals. It's as though IT firms have morphed overnight
into a bunch of swingers.
Steve Jobs, founder of NeXT, said it right when he spoke at the Microsoft
Internet Developers Conference in San Francisco this April. Here are his
opening remarks, transcribed from a video I viewed (and slightly edited
for space):
"It's real weird isn't it? It's weird for three reasons. One is, we're
all together. Two is that Microsoft's vision of where the Web's going is
exactly the same as mine and my colleagues at NeXT. And the third very strange
thing is that we're an independent software company, and Microsoft is treating
us... just as you might have expected Netscape to treat an independent software
developer. But Netscape is treating us exactly as you might have expected
Microsoft to treat us. It's really weird."
New para-dimensions
One reason for the weirdness is that the paradigm-pulverizing Internet has
been knocking the industry on its head. Take, for instance, the infamous
$500 PC for surfing the Net. When Oracle's Larry Ellison first proposed
it, the idea was derided by the PC establishment. "A stupid idea that
will never happen," was Microsoft chairman Bill Gates' response at
last November's Comdex in Las Vegas. Michael Dell, head of Dell Computer,
and several Compaq executives were equally unimpressed with the idea, when
asked about it on their trips to Japan earlier this year.
Yet look what's happening, just six months later. Microsoft is working with
NEC and Japan's giant phone company, NTT, on a set-top box that lets Japanese
TV viewers roam the Web from the comfort of their couches. According to
reports, the operating system is called MMOS -- Microsoft Media Operating
System -- and field tests are underway.
Another Microsoft flip-flop happened over Java, Sun Microsystem's object-oriented
language for the Internet. When Java excitement first percolated through
the industry, Sun turned up the heat with talk that the platform-independent
language would one day make proprietary operating systems obsolete. Microsoft
executives scrambled to cool such a hot notion, retorting that Java was
merely a programming language -- and a largely unproven one at that. Similar
unrealistic claims had been made in the past, they pointed out: fourth-generation
languages, for example, that were meant to rid us of the application backlog,
and AI, which was supposed to rid us of programmers. Yet the only things
that have faded from view are the presumed solutions.
Curious, then, that we now find Microsoft intends not only to support Java,
but will even embed it in Windows 95 and NT. This is nothing less
than a complete reversal of strategy, no matter what the motive.
Rebuilding burnt bridges
Then there's Apple Computer. Three former heads of Apple -- Steve Jobs,
John Sculley, and Mike Spindler -- all clashed with Bill Gates and Microsoft.
Sculley and Spindler even set company lawyers on the software Goliath. Relations
could hardly have been more bitter.
But today, under new CEO Gil Amelio, Apple is positively cozying up to Microsoft,
and Microsoft is now a major Macintosh software developer. Recognizing how
much he needs Microsoft's cooperation in his efforts to put a shine back
on Apple, Amelio even okayed a beer bash for Microsoft's Macintosh programmers
-- one hosted by none other than the world's number one Microsoft baiter,
Macintosh evangelist Guy Kawasaki.
Follow the leader
Nor is the weirdness confined to the US. In Japan, you cannot find more
fierce rivalry than that between the major semiconductor manufacturers NEC,
Toshiba, Hitachi, Fujitsu, and Mitsubishi. The much-vaunted cooperation
between these companies shepherded by the Ministry of International Trade
and Industry (MITI) in the 1970s, when they formed a consortium to catch
up with the US semiconductor industry, was largely a publicity sham. Rivalries
kept cooperation down to a minimum, and meaningful intercompany R&D
was minuscule, documents Scott Callon in Divided Sun, a remarkable
exposé of Japan's failed high-tech consortia between the '70s and
the '90s.
But now we're approaching a new millennium, and with semiconductor fabrication
plants costing a billion dollars and climbing, working with the devil doesn't
seem so bad. This January, ten top Japanese semiconductor manufacturers
each chipped in ¥500 million to form Advanced Semiconductors Technologies
Inc., an R&D venture to help make the 12-inch silicon wafers necessary
for the gigabit memory era.
Who knows where this all will lead to? One thing is clear, though. While
these may well be weird times, they are far from being wacky; on the contrary,
I'd say they are actually weirdly wonderful.
In addition to writing for Computing Japan, John Boyd is the Tokyo
correspondent for InformationWeek and writes the weekly "Computer
Corner" column in the Japan Times. His e-mail address is 40615@mcimail.com
-- but since he detests e-mail, don't expect an electronic reply.
(c) Copyright 1996 Computing Japan magazine. All rights reserved. May
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